The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-first Century – Ronald Bailey

Back in 1972, the computer modelers for The Limits to Growth calculated 42 years ago that known world copper reserves would be entirely depleted in 36 years, lead in 26 years, mercury in 13 years, natural gas in 38 years, petroleum in 38 years, silver in 16 years, tin in 17 years, tungsten in 40 years, and zinc in 23 years.

The book from Ronald Bailey is a skeptical view of doom prophets, reminding readers how many predictions turned out to be false. Bailey gives several examples, such as the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth, agriculture or the  Swedish sperm count, among others.

Books predicting future become old quickly, so it is more constructive to look at books analyzing available data. His book is a well research argument for a libertarian view of the world, putting in place the notion that we live the best lives in the history of human kind. However, the book challenges one’s beliefs and it is difficult to read by an environmentalist.

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Questions on risk aversion

The author argues that never do anything for the first time also known as the precautionary principle will never allow innovations and the society having this as principle evolve (kind of the Chinese society in the 15-19 centuries).

Bailey’s interestingly notices the concept of pathological science, when researchers become blinded by their own moral beliefs.

On climate change, he notes, quoting Dan Kahan and the Yale cultural cognition project, that the debate is chiefly not about science, but about a clash of strongly held values, between mainly Individualist/Hierarchical and Communitarian/Egalitarian set of beliefs, both having different risk aversion. The more educated each person from this division, the more empirical evidence is found consistent with own beliefs, hence a confirmation bias.

On environment protection in general, Bailey’s notices that rich nations protect nature better, for example forest surface re-growing and air quality.

Between Malthusian doomsters and cornucopian optimists, the book tries to strike a balance and the author is conscious about his own potential biases.

Nonetheless, he correctly highlights that the environment discussion is a clash of ideas rather than a scientific debate, both sides having good, solid arguments. Linking with a previous book I just read, Guns, Germs and Steel, which has a liberal view in the US politics sense, environment protection is important: human societies in the Americas, for example, likely killed all large fauna (over 100 kg) crippling their future development. On the other hand, excessive risk aversion and a view of a perfect past (such as a pristine nature) could hinder and eventually destroy a society with this view.

It is a good book that I would recommend reading in balance with Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond, so the reader can make its own opinion.

Ready Player One – Ernest Cline

I created the OASIS because I never felt at home in the real world. I didn’t know how to connect with the people there. I was afraid, for all of my life, right up until I knew it was ending. That was when I realized, as terrifying and painful as reality can be, it’s also the only place where you can find true happiness. Because reality is real.

This is a book with one of the most creative, nerd scifi narratives, exploring the possibilities of virtual reality in a dystopian close future world.

The book follows the story of Wade Watts, a normal teenager fully immersed in a virtual reality called OASIS (a kind of Sims), while the world is slowly decaying around him, economically and politically.

The creator of the OASIS, a multi-billionaire nerd, leaves  his entire fortune and ownership of the programme for the player who manages to pass his in-game trials. Obsessed by the 1980s culture, all trials are related to those years, with music, gaming and movie references. Hence, a 1980s renaissance takes place, billions of players being after this prize, an escape from the dying world around them. The protagonist is one of those seekers.

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The seller of illusions

A rival company pours monumental resources with the same purpose of getting the prize and the ownership of this virtual reality. This company slowly develops as the antagonist of the story.

Five years have passed since the creator died and no progress was noticed on the scoreboard towards the prize, a scoreboard available for everyone to see. Until the Wade’s avatar makes the first breakthrough.

The story gradually gains pace. mingled with love, friendship, courage, real life tragedies and perseverance. It is a story that transforms the teenager into a man. It is a kind of a Harry Potter in a dystopian future, but without family references.

The virtual reality, OASIS, looks like a drug, people giving their life and freedom for a world where they can be anything they want to be. The real world is slowly decaying around them, civil duty (like voting) is neglected, allowing some form of slavery to exist. However, the message of the author is that the virtual reality cannot replace the real world: things like a kiss, a touch are unique and cannot to be replicated.

The book is catchy for everyone who played a computer game in their life, so I recommend it as a good reading. I couldn’t put the book down.

(Featured image by Andreas Dantz)

Guns, Germs and Steel – Jared Diamond

Thanks to this availability of suitable wild mammals and plants, early peoples of the Fertile Crescent could quickly assemble a potent and balanced biological package for intensive food production. That package comprised three cereals, as the main carbohydrate sources; four pulses, with 20—25 percent protein, and four domestic animals, as the main protein sources, supplemented by the generous protein content of wheat; and flax as a source of fiber and oil (termed linseed oil: flax seeds are about 40 percent oil). Eventually, thousands of years after the beginnings of animal domestication and food production, the animals also began to be used for milk, wool, plowing, and transport. Thus, the crops and animals of the Fertile Crescent’s first farmers came to meet humanity’s basic economic needs: carbohydrate, protein, fat, clothing, traction, and transport.

Jared Diamond tries to explain why some societies developed better than others. For example, why 168 Spaniards led by Francisco Pizarro  could conquer in 1532 the million-large Inca Empire and not the other way around? Why some societies evolved to guns and others are still hunter-gatherers?

In short, Diamond considers that simple geographical luck, such as proximity to domesticable plants and animals (quite few worldwide) created centers of innovation. Those centers spread, if not stopped by natural obstacles like mountains or seas, their innovations.

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Good book on early human development

The book follows the anthropological theory of cultural materialism, which says that environment shaped societies. It sounds a bit deterministic: no matter what you do, geographical luck determines your progress. For example, the Incas were doomed, mainly because they had no defense against the germs brought by Europeans.

Another lesson from this book is that, no matter the society, sooner or later, best innovations will prevail. For example, in the fragmented Europe, even if some societies refused some innovation for cultural or other reasons, the neighboring societies that adopted the innovation had a technical advantage that would make the laggard society to either adapt or be conquered.

Innovations drive the society forward, the society very existence depending on that, such as it is the case with Native Indians. This is a very strong argument for trade. For example, being constantly exposed to others through trade and competition, makes a society seeing what is best and allows the opportunity to adopt the new. This explains, for example, why competing and trading Europeans managed to surpass the bigger and earlier advanced Chinese. The Chinese closed up to trade and their earlier political integration worked in their detriment, the closing up happening to the entire center of innovation which was China.

To sum up, Jared Diamond considers that Europeans are no smarter than Australian Aborigines, they were just luckier to be closer and with easier access to early centers of human innovation.

On the down side of the book, Jared Diamond talks very little about guns and steel, as advertised on the title, and mostly about germs and farming. The book reads like an anthropology book with some detailed history from early human settlements to Antiquity.

Overall, a book with some very interesting ideas and with a strong call for open societies and humanity as whole.

(Featured image by John Doebley – A possible evolution of corn)

Darth Bane – Drew Karpyshyn

Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody the power, the other to crave it. The Rule of Two.

The Darth Bane trilogy is part of the expanded Star Wars Universe and likely a nice read only for the fans. Darth Bane is the one that installed the rule that only two Sith Lords can exist, otherwise, they will always fight each other, instead of fighting the Jedi.

The trilogy is divided into three parts: Darth Bane: Path of Destruction, Darth Bane: Rule of Two and Darth Bane: Dynasty of Evil.

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A dark lord you don’t want to mess with.

The books present the story of an evil lord, which starts as a miner on a desolate colony. After an incident, he has to run and joins the Sith army, where he is noticed as Force-sensitive. Trained at the Sith Academy, he quickly climbs ranks and becomes powerful and convinced that only letting two Siths to live could ensure the victory over Jedi.

He manages to trick the other Siths to fall in his trap and kills them all, taking a little girl as apprentice, Darth Zannah. Numerous other adventures follow the two, which lead to their final duel, where Bane is defeated.

The book is imaginative and a real pleasure for the Star Wars fans, while a bit dull for others. The story expands the Star Wars universe and fills some gaps in the original story. The writing has many gems of wisdom, from an evil perspective. The writing style of Karpyshyn is engaging, but not fast-paced or bursting with action. The action scenes are controlled, violent and short.

The trilogy is ok, but not recommended unless for die hard fans.

Blacksad – Juan Diaz Canales, Juanjo Guarnido

Une étoile s’était éclipsée, abandonnant mon passé dans le noir, égaré quelque part entre les ombres. Et personne ne peut vivre sans son passé.

Là dehors se cachait le coupable de deux meurtres, au moins: celui d’une personne et celui de mes souvenirs.

Et ce salaud allait le payer.

Blacksad est une exceptionnelle série de bande dessinée, anthropomorphiste, en cinq volumes (2016) de Juan Díaz Canales (écrivant) et Juanjo Guarnido (dessinateur).

Blacksad, l’héro.

Le héro est John Blacksad, un chat noir, détective privé aux États-Unis dans les années 1950. L’atmosphère a l’empreinte d’un film noir et est parfaitement exprimé par les dessines. Le graphisme de Guarnido est monumental: les personnages animalières sont superbe choisis, la coloration à l’aquarelle donne un timbre spécial, précis et vivant au action.

Le dialogue est fluide, les mots sont bien choisi. La narration est souple, avec aucune bagage de mots inutile, une qualité rare dans la littérature. C’est un plaisir de lire les histoires de Blacksad, regarder les dessines et être part de cette atmosphère noir crée par Canales et Guarnido.

Les cinq volumes sont : Quelque part entre les ombres (2000); Arctic-Nation (2003); Âme rouge (2005); L’Enfer, le silence (2010) et Amarillo (2013).

John Blacksad n’a pas des qualités incroyable, exceptionnelles, mais il est honnête, courageux et obstiné. Blacksad est sombre et solitaire, mais il reste sociable. Le lecteur se peut identifié facilement avec le héro. Son ami est Weekly, une fouine, journaliste, très bien informé, qui partage les même valeurs, mais pas la même personnalité réservé que Blacksad. John travaille souvent avec  Smirnov, un berger allemand, commissaire de police, aussi honnête et incorruptible.

La intrigue est toujours fraiche, plaine des surprises, mais réaliste. Les options disponible pour le héro ne sont pas simple. Les volumes sont avec mafia, assassinats, racisme, femmes fatales, fume de cigares, anticommunisme. Chacun a une couleur dominante propre:  noir, blanc, rouge, bleu et jaune.

La série de bande dessinée Blacksad reste une ouvre d’art, qui je recommande de voir et lire.

[Feature photo: Photographies prises lors du Festival International de la BD de Sollies Ville by Esby from Wikimedia]

[Article photo by Galvi, flickr]

Blowing my cover – Lindsay Moran

Our next instruction was to traverse by night over many more miles of hostile territory, to find a shelter serving as base for a suspected terrorist cell. Once there, we were to infiltrate the premises and collect as much detailed information, “intelligence”, as we could.

We were exhausted, but we knew there was no choice but to press on. That day we managed, somewhat miraculously, to make the entire leg of the trip undetected by the bad guys, although we could hear them patrolling the roads with their noisy Mack trucks, engaging the other groups in firefights.

Blowing my cover – My life as a CIA spy is a memoir of a former CIA operative, who ended up resigning the Agency after 5 years. Moran carefully describes her training and her motives to join (and to resign) from CIA. The style of writing is rather cynical, but entertaining in the same time.

I was interested in the book because she operated in the Balkans, but the former spy doesn’t dwell on her missions.

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Memoirs of a 5-years spy

The book presents in great detail how the CIA training for operatives takes place, such as escaping tails, noticing details, gathering intelligence, making contacts. This part was practical and quick-paced.

The other part, intertwining with her training and missions, was a psychological analysis of her reasons to work for the Agency. She considered her job a lonely, difficult, rather boring job, with little solace. However, the analysis does not go very deep. To provide a context, Moran worked in the Balkans around 2000-2003 and the 9/11 attacks were in 2001. In comparison with the CIA agents in Afghanistan, the Balkans must have been very boring.

The writing could have used more polishing, but it was an interesting reading.

The Art of Lobbying the EU – Rinus van Schendelen

Two different skills deserve special attention. One is the ability to remain cool and calm during the game, in short unagonized, in spite of all the tricks played by the opponents. Whatever happens during it, an interest group must always remain concentrated on its target in the arena, like the football player challenged by various tricks (like spitting, scolding, tackling) must keep watching only the ball, as otherwise the ball is lost. This difficult skill of remaining unagonized gives highly competitive advantage. The second special skill regards the PA research and development (R&D) for useful new resources. Many resources are so general and widespread that they hardly make a difference. The art is to develop new ones that surprise competitors and attract EU officials, thus making a difference.

The Art of Lobbying the EU – More Machiavelli in Brussels is dedicated to professionals of EU affairs, A slow, but fascinating read for the ones working in EU policies: lobbyists, officials, contractors, PermReps, NGOs, interest groups.

The author nicely summarizes, orders and analyses the techniques, tactics and strategies happening in EU politics. While it looks Machiavellian, this kind of interconnections can only happen in a democracy.

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How much of your earnings goes into taxes, set by politics? Still not interested?

A drawback is the rather poor narrative and choice of words. The text looks like it hasn’t been proofread by a good English speaker. There are  too many business words (U-turn; windows in, windows out) and some acronyms look forced.

It was fascinating to read some behind-the-door stories, see who was behind some incredible outcomes, how some political battles were taken, what mistakes were done. Framing, astro-surfing, narrowing access, influencing the right players were remainders of some realpolitik tactics used for specific outcomes, of which the professional should be aware and counter-act.

Prof. van Schendelen describes quite accurately the political process and how legislation is made, in a practical way. The numerous official and unofficial players and interactions are presented, to each given a special attention. The legislative process is followed, each step presented with the opportunities to influence.

To sum up, the book is quite technical and of interest only to those doing their bidding in EU politics.

Shadow work-the unpaid, unseen jobs that fill your day – Craig Lambert

Shadow work will grow. It rewards businesses and organizations in ways that are irresistible. No capitalist can refuse a chance to cut those heavy personnel costs by transferring jobs to customers who work for free. As shadow work merges into our daily routines, it will affect social habits, economic patterns, and lifestyles.

This amazing book by Craig Lambert discusses the many small jobs that fill the day, uselessly tiring a person and keeping it in constant stress. From the self-check out to cleaning your own table , from the meaningless coupons and small reduction cards to freely creating content by posting reviews (TripAdvisor, GoodReads), the author gives many examples of work that keeps us busy, without actually creating significant value-added.

The phrase that I loved most was: if you are not paying for the product, you are the product. Think of Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and others.

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Is your time precious?

The book has some parts where the author rather rants and does not make clear that some of this work is to save money. Nonetheless, it is often forgotten that time is the most precious resource and the author correctly notes that people prefer giving time for money rather than money for time.

Craig Lambert makes the reader think of how much content and personal information, he/she is giving for free. Reviews, grading, customer experience surveys, likes, are all commercial information freely given. It has a huge success: Facebook, Uber, AirBnb, Quora, Booking.com thrive on the free work done by customers, giving their own time.

The book is a good read for everyone tired at the end of the day and wondering why. Some enjoy doing the volunteering job, others just get caught in a whirlpool of small tasks.

Noul aliat – George Cristian Maior

Intotdeauna m-am considerat un adept al scolii realiste, al relatiilor de putere in lumea contemporana, dar cu o deschidere spre valentele noi induse in teorie si practica de curentele postmoderniste si constructiviste.

George Maior este actualul (2016) ambasador al Romaniei in Statele Unite si fostul sef al Serviciului Roman de Informatii (SRI).

Cartea sa, scrisa in 2009, revizuita in 2012, este o colectie de studii, conferinte si articole, scrise in 2001 si 2004. Maior isi exprima ideile despre rolul Romaniei in NATO, el fiind si cel care s-a ocupat de integrarea Romaniei in NATO in acea perioada.

Cartea se plaseaza foarte mult in campul relatiilor internationale, cu toata literatura si curentele de rigoare. Scriitura este foarte academica, iar modul de argumentare este aproape exclusiv teoretic.

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Un ganditor profund al rolului Romaniei in NATO

Maior considera rolul Romaniei in NATO ca agent activ, implicat in actiuni nu numai pe teritoriul national, ci oriunde alianta are de gestionat o criza. De asemenea, Romania are rolul de alarma, fiind la marginea geografica a aliantei.

Modul de atinge aceste obiective il reprezinta personalul uman, bine pregatit si selectionat. O importanta speciala o are puterea software, ceea ce se traduce prin diplomatie, asadar un rol mai activ al ambasadelor romanesti in strainatate. In Romania, de altfel, se afla sediul HumInt (Human Intelligence) al NATO.

Multe din ideile autorului se regasesc in strategia si actiunile ulterioare ale Romaniei. Maior este un ganditor profund al situatiei din regiune, un realist ce considera ca integrarea Romaniei in NATO inseamana si responsabilitati. Maior traseaza clar rolul Romaniei in alianta, in raport cu capacitatile reale ale tarii si raspunde viguros la intrebarea “NATO protejeaza, dar Romania cu ce vine, ce pune pe masa?”

Cartea este dificil de urmarit pentru cei neinteresati de relatiile internationale, dar reprezinta etalonul in ce priveste strategia privind rolul Romaniei in NATO.

Heir to the Empire (Star Wars: The Thrawn Trilogy, Book 1) – Timothy Zahn

On his status board, a section of the Chimaera’s shield schematic went red. “Get that starboard shield back up,” he ordered, giving the sky in that direction a quick scan. There were half a dozen warships out there, all of them firing like mad, with a battle station in backstop position behind them.
If their sensors showed that the Chimaera’s starboard shields were starting to go—
“Starboard turbolasers: focus all fire on the Assault Frigate at thirty-two mark forty,” Thrawn spoke up calmly. “Concentrate on the starboard side of the ship only.”

The book is part of the Star Wars expanded universe and takes place after the Emperor and Darth Vader are defeated. Five years have passed since the Alliance destroyed the Death Star and killed the Emperor and Darth Vader. Han Solo and Leia Organa are now married with twins coming and Luke Skywalker is starting the new Jedi Order.

Under those premises, the author, Timothy Zahn, creates a new antagonist, Grand Admiral Thrawn, a military genious and great psychologist, leader of the reminding of the Empire’s fleet.

What is impressive of the plot and the narrative is that Zahn doesn’t rely on old cliches, but creates new personages. The plot is logical and tight, without the fantastic and illogical actions happening in the films. The new personages are solid, deep, credible and the reader is interested in their fate and actions. Their reasoning is sound and you, as a reader, would consider the same actions given their circumstances. There is little hocus-pocus, due to the Force. Logic and work are more important.

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Admiral Thrawn, a brilliant mind, but on the wrong side.

Timothy Zahn credibly starts the plot. If you are an Admiral, in command of several fleets and planets, why would you surrender over some rebels in shambles, badly organised and with little resources?

The reader then follows the events and actions happening in the universe, which revolve around the plans of Admiral Thrawn to increase his power and weaken the Alliance. The Admiral has no other power than his mind and his keen understanding of things. As he notices as some point: ” When you understand a species’ art, you understand that species. ” Several other gems of wisdom are voiced by him.

However, Thrawn is not the only memorable character. Mara Jade, the strong and complex character with a secret past; Talon Karrde, the smuggler; Joruus C’baoth, the Dark Jedi clone; the Noghri, the skilled, but honorable assassins and others, they are all unforgettable.

The story sticks for serious readers because it involves no magic; it is all a battle of the minds, with the Force, the battleships, the armies, just tools to achieve an objective, not game-changers. The real change is made by the actions of people. This is the message of the author throughout the book.

A great book for the Star Wars fans.