Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air – David J.C. MacKay

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This heated (environmental) debate is fundamentally about numbers. How much energy could each source deliver, at what economic and social cost, and with what risks? But actual numbers are rarely mentioned. In public debates, people just say “Nuclear is a money pit” or “We have a huge amount of wave and wind.” The trouble with this sort of language is that it’s not sufficient to know that something is huge: we need to know how the one “huge” compares with another “huge,” namely our huge energy consumption. To make this comparison, we need numbers, not adjectives.

The book tries to quantitatively check how a world driven by renewable energy would like. The calculations look at possibilities, how much we can produce, compared with how much we consume, in terms of kW, ignoring the costs of technologies and deployment. Only if the numbers add up is checked.

The research is divided into three parts. First part is taking different classes of consumption and production and stacks them into two columns, seeing how the numbers look like, The second part explores scenarios involving various deployments of renewable electricity technologies or carbon reduction. Finally, the third part presents the technical analysis behind the numbers presented.

The analysis focuses on the United Kingdom, investigating how much the country can produce in terms of renewable electricity and looking at different scenarios, including imports for more renewable-potent neighbours.

The investigation by David MacKey is looking at the key problems of energy sustainability, checking real energy consumption, not only electricity, but including for example transport, products we buy and agriculture.

Although feeling a bit dated sometimes, Sustainable Energy, first published in 2008, still brings insightful findings. It is one the most, if not the most comprehensive analysis of how realistic a renewable future is.

Unfortunately, David MacKey passed away in 2016, but his superb analysis remains. He was Professor of Physics at the University of Cambridge.

I recommend the first part of the book to everyone interested in energy, while the third part is really for only those really into the topic.

This is the first book I post which was read on my new e-reader.

Six Wakes – Mur Lafferty

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I’m so sick of that argument. I’ve been hearing it for centuries. Playing God. Wolfgang, we played God when people believed they could dictate their baby’s gender by having sex in a certain position. We played God when we invented birth control, amniocentesis, cesarean sections, when we developed modern medicine and surgery. Flight is playing God. Fighting cancer is playing God. Contact lenses and glasses are playing God. Anything we do to modify our lives in a way that we were not born into is playing God. In vitro fertilization. Hormone replacement therapy. Gender reassignment surgery. Antibiotics.

Six Wakes is hard scifi detective story taking place on a start ship headed for a new planet. Six clones, the entire crew of the ship, wake up, their earliest memory being from the start of the journey, 25 years ago. They are surrounded by their murdered bodies.

We follow the stories and point of view of each character, all having great character development and good motivations.

The novel debates the effects of cloning, in a masterful piece of suspense and mystery. The storytelling is compelling and the world building feels giving sufficient detail, without overwhelming the reader.

The book was widely appreciated, being a finalist for both Hugo and Nebula scifi competitions, the most important book competitions of the genre.

It took me less than a day to finish the book, I could not leave it down. A great detective story in space.

 

Ahsoka – E.K. Johnston

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When Ahsoka opened her hands, she was not surprised to find that two lightsabers, rough and unfinished, were waiting. They would need more work, but they were hers. When she turned them on, they shone the brightest white.

Ahsoka is a novel in the Star Wars universe, presenting a few episodes of Ashoka Tano’s life a few years after the birth of the Empire. We can see how she transforms from a hesitating young refugee to a responsible and cunning operative.

The story follows Ashoka running from the Imperials, from planet to planet, trying to keep her disguise. After a time, she realizes that running cannot continue anymore. There is evil that she cannot tolerate and must use her Jedi abilities to save people, meaning that her presence is known and she is hunted. This is a danger for both her and the people she tries to save.

The development of the protagonist is well constructed and the reader understands her struggle and decisions. The story is well constructed and compelling The phrases flow nicely and the events are well-paced. However, the vocabulary is rather poor and the storytelling could could have been more entertaining. The book is rather a story than a novel.

Nevertheless, it is an entertaining reading for the Star Wars fans and rather one of the better books from the universe.

The Future of Humanity: Terraforming Mars, Interstellar Travel, Immortality and Our Destiny Beyond Earth – Michio Kaku

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The deep space transport uses a new type of propulsion system to send astronauts through space, called solar electric propulsion. The huge solar panels capture sunlight and convert it to electricity. This is used to strip away the electrons from a gas (like xenon), creating ions. An electric field then shoots these charged ions out one end of the engine, creating thrust. Unlike chemical engines, which can only fire for a few minutes, ion engines can slowly accelerate for months or even years.

The Future of Humanity is one of the best books on science and astrophysics published in English language. It is now already considered a classical book on futurism and cosmology.

The book starts imagining how humans may solve some of the technical challenges in exploring space. Transport, propulsion, habitats, the economics of trying to finance the space exploration, robots are discussed, using the latest scientific discoveries. A lesson in astrophysics is offered, explaining our sun system, galaxy and the universe at large. Towards the end of the book, the latest theories proposed to explain the universe as wee see it are described.

Michio Kaku is professor of theoretical physics in the City College of New York and a proponent of the string theory (theory in which the point-like particles of particle physics are replaced by one-dimensional objects called strings). He wrote several well-received books on futurism and physics.

It is an awe-inspiring call to try and reach the starts. The message of the book is to not forget the long term: expand beyond our native planet, otherwise the nature will overwhelm us. I am making an exception and will add another quote from this author, which I find revealing:

Looking back at those dark days, I am sometimes reminded of what happened to the great Chinese imperial fleet in the fifteenth century. Back then, the Chinese were the undisputed leaders in science and exploration. They invented gunpowder, the compass, and the printing press. They were unparalleled in military power and technology. Meanwhile, medieval Europe was wracked by religious wars and mired in inquisitions, witch trials, and superstition, and great scientists and visionaries like Giordano Bruno and Galileo were often either burned alive or placed under house arrest, their works banned. Europe, at the time, was a net importer of technology, not a source of innovation.

I devoured the book in about three days. It is easy to read, the concepts from physics are easy to follow, despite their complexity, and the ideas proposed feel innovative and optimistic. A great book, particularly for young adults, searching for a meaning in life.

Energy and Civilization: A History – Vaclav Smil

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Despite many differences in agronomic practices and in cultivated crops, all traditional agricultures shared the same energetic foundation. They were powered by the photosynthetic conversion of solar radiation, producing food for people, feed for animals, recycled wastes for the replenishment of soil fertility, and fuels for smelting the metals needed to make simple farm tools.

The books from Vaclav Smil are a trove of knowledge on energy evolution. This book discusses the evolution of human energy advances over time, from agriculture to weapons.

The book reads more as an academic article, with a plethora of references and sources. One sixth of the book is just references. Very dense in knowledge and explanations, it overwhelms the reader with the sheer depth of analysis.

Smil tries to use largely a single energy unit, joules, to measure everything, from the various techniques to harness animals to work to the different ways to pass water through the watermills. The purpose is to quantify the evolution of human energy efficiency over time.

The book is encyclopedic in its depth and range, truly a history. The book dryness of writing and data is broken by very informative and engaging boxes, explaining various facts and developments.

The only downside is the grammar errors found here and there sometimes.

I was impressed by the precision and correct analysis of energy sources and transformations, missed by many pundits.

Also impressive is the general neutral tone regarding various sources that the author manages to impose.

Overall, an incredible book, THE book on energy history.

The Visual Display of Quantitative Information – Edward R. Tufte

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Graphical excellence is that which gives to the viewer the greatest number of ideas in the shortest time with the least ink in the smallest space.

This book is a classic of how to design a good graphic. It contains some of the most inspirational graphics ever seen and Tufte puts the basis of what makes informational design beautiful and practical.

The content is mostly graphs and charts from the 1970s (even though the second edition is from 2001), which contain the main ideas of a good or a bad chart, but more contemporary design would have been more entertaining.

Undoubtedly, the book is useful in teaching to avoid bad graphic design pitfalls, but it often looks at it would need an update.

The designs presented are elegant and powerful, but sometimes forget about the new displays of space, fonts, colours, images, movement.

I was impressed by the simplicity and power of some charts made in the 18th and 19th century, by pencil and rule. They expressed ideas so strongly, only using good use of images, numbers and space.

A good design cannot supplement bad information, but a good design can made good information, memorable.

The Last Wish (The Witcher) – Andrzej Sapkowski (Translator Danusia Stok)

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I don’t believe in Melitele, don’t believe in the existence of other gods either, but I respect your choice, your sacrifice. Your belief. Because your faith and sacrifice, the price you’re paying for your silence, will make you better, a greater being. Or, at least, it could. But my faithlessness can do nothing. It’s powerless.

The Witcher is a series that you either know or you don’t. It was widely popularized by the TV games and the Netflix series. The story follows a demon-hunter, Geralt of Rivia, in his quest to basically make the world a better place, without attracting too much attention. The adventures take place in a fantasy world, with elves, mages and dwarves, similar to a pre-gunpowder, medieval world.

The appealing of the book is in the main character and the universe created. His choices are real and well-motivated. He is hated for being different, basically a mutant, and his helped sought only in dire need. Geralt wants to help and make a better world. Yet, he needs to make a living and he asks for money for his exploits. This gives him a great emotional burden, as too much involvement would get him in trouble, as any wrong move could mean a death verdict by a mayor or a king. Our hero wants to help, but most often then not, he is chased away, despite his best intentions.

The beauty of the story is that the protagonist, despite being often despise, chased away and confronting mortal danger, does not give up of his humanity and keeps seeking the light. It is truly a beautiful story.

The Last Wish is built as a series of short stories, introducing our main character and his friend, the troubadour Dandelion (Jeskier in original Polish manuscript). The love interest is Yennifer of Vengerberg, but, as Dandelion, she is much more than a support character.

Dandelion understands human character on a profound level. He is a good person, a superb artist and a practical guy who marries his genuine desire to help the Witcher with building his own fame. What the Witcher needs is basically some solid public relations and Dandelion provides that by composing and singing songs about the Witcher tales, making him known to people and, so, approachable.

Yennifer is the love interest of the main character, but she is not a damsel in distress. She is powerful woman, smart and independent, thinking with her own head. Her character is developed later in other books of the series, The Last Wish only introducing her as a powerful sorceress, way stronger than Geralt.

There is no doubt that the stories are well-thought and nicely built. The conundrum is real and there is no easy way out. Despite a world of magic, the solutions are very real and sometimes painful. The reader is engaged and wants to know more about the protagonist. The author does this in a craftily way, not by cutting a story and leave it for later, but by creating interest in the world and the Witcher.

The pace of stories is absolutely perfect, you never feel that the descriptions are too long or details are missing. The vocabulary is rather mediocre, but hard to say if that is because of the author or of the translator.

To sum up, the Polish author Andrej Sapkowski created one of the best characters in the fantasy world, Geralt of Rivia, the Witcher.

Death’s End – Liu Cixin (Translator Ken Liu)

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Some call them doomsday ships. These lightspeed ships have no destination at all. They turn their curvature engines to maximum and accelerate like crazy, infinitely approaching the speed of light. Their goal is to leap across time using relativity until they reach the heat death of the universe. By their calculations, ten years within their frame of reference would equal fifty billion years in ours. As a matter of fact, you don’t even need to plan for it. If some malfunction occurs after a ship has accelerated to lightspeed, preventing the ship from decelerating, then you’d also reach the end of the universe within your lifetime.

By many accounts, this is one of the best science fiction books ever written. The volume is the third in the Three-Body Problem trilogy and the best of all three. The story follows the development of humanity after the encounter with the aliens and finding the precarious balance. Many eras pass by, each one bringing amazing concepts and developments, surprising the reader. The protagonist is this time Cheng Xin, an aerospace engineer, who is not a driver, but an anchor for the narrative. She is placed in the middle of all important decisions, from Swordhandler to speedlight ships development. However, her decisions are only a consequence of being chosen as such by humanity.

Trisolarians become at the end allies in an ending universe, gargantuan, dark and soulless. The Dark Forest remains a grim fact of the universe for the author, following the same rule less world perception developed by Thomas Hobbes: Homo homini lupus, but on a cosmos scale.

The boundless imagination of presenting new eras, technologies and aliens is mindblowing. The author manages to give the right length of description with unprecedented precision: enough to give the essence of an era, summarizing the relevant developments.

The logical tightness of the tale is astonishing, managing to captivate the imagination of the reader and make him wonder of what could it be beyond the stars. The concepts brought forward: dark forest, deterrence, civilization development, dimensions of a universe, galactic distances, human choices in face of critical situations, human society evolution having different stimuli, alien courses of action, make the book and the trilogy on par with the best of scifi writers.

These volumes of hard scifi are stunningly well-research as well, replying to practical, physics questions that arise in the wave of civilization and technology development with plausible, well-thought solutions.

No doubt, this is one of the best hard scifi books written so far, bringing enthusiasm for humanity to look at starts and see what lies beyond our planet. This is despite the fact that, ultimately, the story is one of fatalism, where humans, societies and civilizations, are at the mercy of cosmic events.

[Feature image: Yayoi Kusama – Infinity Room]

Bidding Zones analysis – group project

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Below my group project on Bidding zones for the EU Electricity ‎Network Codes course.

Do you think that the changes made by the Clean Energy Package to the bidding zone review procedure will lead to different results or create more challenges?

The newly-adopted Electricity Regulation (ER), article 14.1, states that “[…] Bidding zone borders shall be based on long-term, structural congestions in the transmission network. Bidding zones shall not contain such structural congestions unless they have no impact on neighbouring bidding zones […]”. EU TSOs and NRAs are mandated by the Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management Guideline (CACM GL) and ER to assess on a regular basis the existing bidding zones (BZ) configuration, and possibly initiate its review and reconfiguration.

A BZ review was voluntary under the CACM GL (article 32.1), but became compulsory under the ER (article 14.3). Under CACM GL, the review should include scenarios that take into account “likely” infrastructure developments within the following ten years (article 33.1), while the methodology required by the ER should be based on structural congestions that were not expected to be overcome (e.g. due to grid expansion) within three years (article 14.5). The ER obliged the TSOs to present a BZ methodology by October 2019 (article 14.5), and the all TSOs proposal was submitted on 7 October 2019. It includes one annex per region presenting the alternative BZ configurations that will be compared to the status-quo during the review.

According to the ER, the relevant regulatory authorities shall take a unanimous decision on the TSOs proposal by January 2020. If unanimity is not reached, ACER shall decide on the methodology and alternative BZ configurations, by April 2020 latest. Once the methodology has been decided, the TSOs of each region have one year to submit a proposal to amend or maintain the bidding zone configuration, based on the results of the review. The proposal comes on the table of the concerned NRAs for approval. If unanimity is not reached, the European Commission has the final say on maintaining or amending the current BZ configuration.

The puzzle is whether the TSOs’ methodology proposal is able to identify structural congestions. Via art. 16(8) ER, it can be interpreted that a Member State (MS) suffers from structural congestion if it doesn’t comply with the 70% minRAM clause. If this is the case, the MS has two options: establish a (multi)national action plan or amend its BZ. There are two BZ configuration principles. Firstly, the BZ should be constructed independent of political borders, but built around structural congestions. Secondly, the size of a BZ should be a fine balance between structural congestions and market liquidity and competitiveness.

The main opportunities and challenges arising from the changes introduced by the CEP are summarized below:

Opportunities:

  • The 70% minRAM clause of article 16(8) offers an opportunity for a willing TSO and a MS to change the configuration of a BZ.
  • Splitting BZs may be politically sensitive at the national level, so putting ACER and the European Commission in charge of final decisions may break local interests and put the interest of the EU market as a whole ahead of national interests.
  • A process for amending BZ is now relatively clearly defined, allowing MS the possibility to create and follow action plans. The clarification was important, as the first BZ review was not successful. Action plans offer MS more time, but multiple opportunities have been built into the procedure to revert from an action plan to deciding on a BZ reconfiguration.

Challenges:

  • At the center of the BZ review process lies the identification of a structural congestion. Thus, this should be the first step of the process. However, TSOs must already propose alternative BZ configurations, even if no methodology has been developed to identify structural congestions. In this context, it is not surprising that in the annex many TSOs argue that they don’t propose a BZ alternative because their country doesn’t suffer from structural congestion (see table in annex at the end of this paper). In this context, the whole process already stops at the first step.
  • The attempt to define structural congestion based on the 70% minRAM clause has also severe limitations. Differences in interpretation can be observed (not only across MS but also different stakeholders) and it is in the NRAs’ responsibility to check for compliance. Consequently, it doesn’t appear as an appropriate tool to pressure MS suffering from structural congestion to amend their BZ.
  • Additionally, it solely gives arguments for splits and not for mergers of BZs which could be beneficial from a market liquidity and competitiveness perspective. This is obvious from reading the annexes of the all TSOs proposal, where almost only arguments against or in favor of splits are listed.
  • As stated above, if the NRAs don’t come to an agreement concerning which BZ configurations should be evaluated, ACER will take the final decision. In relation with the complexity of the situation, in particular in the central EU region, questions can be raised concerning the competences, e.g. in simulation, needed for taking such decision. Any decision not well argued or missing consistency could be raised in court.

Conclusions

The BZ reconfiguration is a necessary step towards solving several present and future congestions, in addition to requesting TSOs to offer more capacity to the market. The ER, part of the Clean Energy Package, was a natural opportunity to develop such a plan. A rather clear and agreed methodology, follow-up steps and backup solutions are all foreseen in the ER.

However, there are a number of drawbacks, such as the bias towards splitting BZ in the BZ reconfiguration, instead of merging them as well. The procedure for identifying structural congestions is possibly flawed, as TSOs must propose alternative BZ configurations in parallel with developing a methodology that must be approved by regulators. In addition, connecting BZ configurations to the 70% clause with all of its limitations (diverse interpretations, in/sufficient data availability, etc.) and action plans does not contribute to its implementation, but it is watering down the process. Furthermore, leaving European institutions as ultimate decision-makers, might look as a solution but it remains to be seen if it will be fit for purpose due to the dominantly political nature of the process.

The Dark Forest – Liu Cixin, (Translator Joel Martinsen)

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The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life—another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod—there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people. An eternal threat that any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out. This is the picture of cosmic civilization. It’s the explanation for the Fermi Paradox.

This is the second book of the “Remembrance of Earth’s Past” trilogy by Liu Cixin. The book continues the story in the Three-Body Problem and explores the decisions humanity makes finding that an alien civilization heads for Earth, bent on destruction, in 400 years.

The story is followed through the eyes of Luo Ji, a lackadaisical astronomer and sociologist, who is named one of the four Wallfacers, the humanity project to hide its intentions from the Tri-solarian aliens. The anchor of the book remains Luo Ji’s quiet protector, the detective and policeman Shi Qiang.

Years and generations pass and humanity oscillates from the height of optimism and arrogant self-confidence to the depths of despair, when its fleet is easily taken out by a single alien droplet.

The questions addressed and the hard science put into the plot makes the novel a fascinating read. Weaker than the first book, this volume gives less space to the aliens and more to the personal story of Luo Ji.

The book is not a hero’s story, struggling for humanity, but of an unambitious fellow put, sometimes inexplicably, in positions of decision with grave effects for humankind. The book has no real protagonist, as Luo Ji is not sufficiently explored to understand all his decisions.

The alien motivations and the world building are beautifully exposed and are logically impeccable, while humanity’s response is lackluster, even disappointing. Few raise to the task, including our main personage.

The volume is of excellent writing quality and the story is well followed and expanded from the first book. A less exhilarating experience than The Three-Body problem, but, nonetheless, a great book to read.